AfDB scales down Togo’s growth forecast for 2022, attributes revision to Russia-Ukraine war
Monday, 30 May 2022 13:14 
(Togo First) - From 6.2%, the African Development Bank (AfDB) scaled down its 2022 growth forecast for the Togolese economy to 5.8%. The drop, which the AfDB attributes to the Russia-Ukraine war, Covid-19, and climate change, was disclosed during the Bank’s latest general assembly held in Accra.
"For 2022, the economic outlook seemed favorable. However, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia could slow down the recovery that Togo initiated in 2021 (6% against 1.8% in 2020), with GDP growth expected at 5.8% against an initial forecast of 6.2% in early February 2022," said the Abidjan-based pan-African institution.
It should be emphasized that the AfDB’s initial forecast slightly exceeded that of the Togolese government; the latter expected a 6.1% growth rate in 2022.
Read also: Togolese government expects 6.1% economic growth in 2022, amidst post-Covid recovery
Growth slows, inflation rises
Regarding inflation, the AfDB now expects it will reach 4.6%, up from 2.4% initially. Most significantly, it will affect imported products like wheat.
"Togo could be affected because of its trade relations with Russia and Ukraine. About 40% of Togo's wheat imports in 2020 came from Russia, suggesting a strong likelihood of a negative effect on the availability and price of the grain," the AfDB wrote in a report.
Other issues concern relations with Togo’s partners, in Europe and Asia (China, India notably) who have to overcome energy (gas) supply hurdles paired with other consequences of sanctions imposed on Russia.
"The country could also be affected by the negative effects of the conflict on partner countries, such as those in the eurozone and Asia," the report says.
Let’s not forget Covid-19 and its variants, whose economic and health impacts still impair supply chains. This is particularly the case in China, whose strict anti-covid policy affects its major ports.
A new Novissi is needed
In response to the situation, characterized by soaring prices of consumer goods and energy, the AfDB recommended measures to bolster consumption and revive Togo’s economy. The measures resemble the government’s Novissi cash-transfer scheme launched in 2020 to help people cope with the Covid-19 crisis.
"Awareness of the above risks would make it necessary to scale up stimulus measures such as the NOVISSI program to alleviate the burden of soaring prices on households already hard hit by the effects of the health crisis," the AfDB said.
Ayi Renaud Dossavi
